Deciding on fitness‐for‐purpose‐of models and of natural flood management

Abstract This article has taken a distributed modelling approach to examine the potential for hillslope storage bunds as natural flood management (NFM) strategy mitigate effects of downstream flooding if deployed extensively in 209 km 2 River Kent catchment Cumbria (UK). To do so, novel invalidation been calibrate an ensemble Dynamic Topmodel parameter sets considered fit‐for‐purpose prediction peaks. Only 67 realizations out 100 000 survived evaluation at peaks ranked hydrographs including notable 2005, 2009 and 2015 events, together with process constraint on minimum area contributing saturation overland flow largest storm record. These events were used baseline (before intervention results) simulate effect introducing 1549 temporarily retain flows optimal locations. The analysis is extended simulating reduction inundation damage estimates by running Dyanmic simulations inputs hydraulic model JFlow Storm Desmond event. Even given such large number interventions damages this case relatively small. results study emphasize amounts required any NFM scheme, individual features enough that they are not too quickly overwhelmed, order have significant impact consequent damages.